Rotation Signal on the Nasdaq: Chip and Energy Stocks Step Back Into the Spotlight

The weekly review opens with a quiet macro calendar. August CPI arrives on Friday and PPI on Thursday, while Thursday's Oracle and Adobe results are the earnings highlights of the week. After a low-volume holiday session in the US, trading desks are returning and volumes are expected to pick up. The main view is that the market's direction will largely be decided in this week's full-volume sessions.

On fund flows, crypto, data-center and memory names plus energy were strong last week, while health care and chip stocks started to recover slowly. Money reportedly came out of copper miners, software and cybersecurity stocks. That group had rallied nicely over the past month or two while chip stocks were under pressure. Now the pendulum may be swinging back: software rests while chips show early signs of inflows, though confirmation requires continued software selling and chip strength this week.

Bond yields keep pressuring the picture. Thirty-year yields eased slightly but remain near their 52-week highs, and ten-year yields are also close to their peaks, which keeps weighing on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is forming a smaller bull flag; a break above 7750 could open the way toward 7900. The Nasdaq has lagged the S&P because of chip weakness, and a return of money into chips and hardware could trigger a similar upside break. With about two months to the elections, the risk of a pullback toward the 200-day average stays on the table. On the Russell 2000, the 50-day average could not be retaken and 2983 is the level to watch.

Crypto and commodities paint a mixed but readable picture. Bitcoin has moved sideways since August 21 and is consolidating; the falling trend was broken with strong volume and the price has since held flat on thinner volume. Ethereum looks similar: holding here could bring 3000 into play, while closes below 2000 would point toward 2200 near the 200-day average. Gold has pulled back mildly since August 25 but seeks support above its 50-day average; avoiding closes below 4350 could set up a move toward 4700. In oil, the US-Iran tanker confrontation has lifted the geopolitical premium; the downtrend is breaking and gains could continue without a deal. The volatility index sits below 15, touching the 13.8 zone on Friday, so no major near-term move is being priced in.

Strategy broke its long falling trend and rose for three straight weeks on strong volume, driven by the Bitcoin recovery. Still, no uptrend can be confirmed before closes above the 200-day average at 154 dollars. A healthy trend would need staircase-like rising bottoms and tops of the kind seen after the 2022 bear market. A limited pullback forming a local bottom first would be the healthier path, with new highs then confirming the turn.

The most striking move came from memory names. Micron rose 6 percent against a flat market on Friday and closed above 1000 dollars, approaching the 1035 resistance zone that had rejected it three times before; closes above it could start a march toward new highs. Expectations run high into the September 30 earnings report. Sandisk was even hotter with a 12 percent jump to the 1740 zone; a break above the August 17 peak at 1825 could bring a fast move to 2350, with a long-term target of 2700. The trigger cited is OpenAI's new model that controls computers through voice commands; framed as a step toward general AI, this wave is expected to expand memory demand and benefit Micron, Sandisk, Seagate, SK Hynix and Samsung. Whereas past cycles were driven by PCs and phones, demand is now led by AI chips in data centers, which is presented as changing the classic cyclicality debate.

Among chipmakers, TSMC is breaking its downtrend; holding without closes below the 21-day average during the chip correction is shown as evidence of strength, with a long-term target of 500 dollars. Broadcom is balancing around its 50-week average near 355 dollars; a pre-election pullback to 300 is flagged as possible, yet management's guidance of tripling revenue in two years is used to argue these levels are an opportunity, with a long-term target of 500 or even 600 dollars. Intel has broken its falling trend on rising three-day volume, though no close above the 50-day average has printed yet. A supportive social-media post from Trump plus the CEO's reported 10-million-dollar purchase near 95 dollars on August 11 are cited as potential supports this week, with a move toward 115 on the table.

In energy, Constellation Energy broke the falling trend in place since October 2025 and has risen about 26 percent from the 230 to 235 zone previously flagged as a buy area. The 200-day average at 287 dollars was retaken decisively, and 328 to 330 is described as key resistance that could open the path to record highs. The thesis is that rising AI demand lifts energy demand, making the name suitable for the long term; the speaker openly holds it in his own portfolio. Vistra found support near 135 dollars, with the CEO buying over one million dollars in the open market over the last two weeks. Its downtrend is not broken yet, but it looks fundamentally cheaper than Constellation, with a long-term target of 220 to 230 dollars implying around 50 percent upside from current levels.

Bloom Energy tested its 50-week average, flipped the 160 zone from resistance to support, rose to 252 and stretched to 266 after hours on news of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index, adding about 5 percent after a 7 percent regular-session gain. Its downtrend and 50-day average are broken, and political holders are cited, including a reported purchase near 210 dollars by Pelosi. On IREN, the latest earnings were poor and the stock fell 13 percent, but it recovered about 26 percent from the lows and broke its downtrend and moving averages; the 28 to 33 zone held three times as major support and a run toward 70 is discussed. The company's sizable secured-energy contracts as a data-center player are presented as the reason it remains holdable despite the weak quarter.

In the rest of the data-center basket, Riot broke its downtrend like IREN, held its 50-week average and is forming rising bottoms and tops on the weekly chart, with 30 or even 36 dollars discussed. Cipher Mining looks weaker but is attempting a similar formation, Nebius broke a small downtrend and is recovering. CoreWeave remains the weakest of the group but has traded in a long sideways band, and a break of resistance could bring a sharp record run. The overall read is that the data-center complex looks strong, always with the caveat of a possible pre-election pullback and the need for this week's volume confirmation.