Tech took a breather while retail stocks stole the show: Nasdaq soft, Dow firm

Monday, October 12 opened the week on a mixed note. The Nasdaq composite slid 0.4 pct while the SP 500 closed slightly red, down less than a tenth of a pct. The Dow added 0.4 pct and climbed back above its 21-day moving average. Small caps fell about 0.4 pct and looked for support at their 200-day line. Think of a morning market count: quiet storefront, busy back aisles.

The Nasdaq composite holding above its 21-day line still reassures me. After a stretch where one-day gains were handed straight back, stacked gains feel different. The relative-strength line now tests its own short-term average, which deserves caution. The Nasdaq 100, though, struggles near the 750 level; the pullback after the breakout continues, yet nothing looks broken so far.

The bond market stayed shut for Columbus Day, so the 10-year yield barely moved. That leaves a foggy window for small-cap watchers: IWM found footing at its 200-day line but has lived under its 21-day line for a long while, bumping its head on every visit. The 30-stock Dow proves little by itself, yet reclaiming its 21-day line still reads as a welcome sign.

The equal-weight SP 500 basket rose above its 21-day line on Friday and held it today. These small green shoots matter for breadth, since baskets like the Russell 2000 rarely flash them after months below the line. Still, I hold my applause: strength comes from defensive corners such as staples and insurers. I prefer tech leading while other groups follow, not tech being replaced by them.

The semiconductor basket closed firmly under its 21-day line, which makes me uneasy. We remain above the 50-day line, so no alarm bells, but this shelf needs close watching. Software enjoyed a strong Friday and seemed ready to follow through, yet it reversed intraday and finished at the lows. In short, tech formed the weak belly of the day while insurance, staples and financial names carried the strength.

The Magnificent Seven basket kept the Nasdaq composite standing today. Meta rose 3.4 pct and lent serious support to the index. Microsoft shines inside the software group: a calm climb above its 21-day line, loyal to its short-term 8-day exponential average. That vigor dates back to the earnings push above the 200-day line and has barely faded; pauses came, but always in a healthy way, hugging the 21-day line.

Amazon looks wobbly while Apple appears calm and tidy lately. With the seven giants strong as a group, headline indexes look a touch healthier than they truly are. Across the street, the basket holding the other 493 SP 500 names faces a test at its 50-day line: clearing the 21-day was step one, now the 50-day must give way. Fortune records fit this frame; most giants lagged the index through 2025 while Alphabet and one semiconductor leader carried the basket.

A power trend runs on, yet it guarantees nothing, just as follow-through days guarantee nothing. The trend puts a bullish hat on me, but I never drop stock-level risk rules: no single-name loss passes 7 to 8 pct. A fine-looking index never excuses single-stock risk, because what fills or drains my pocket is my own holdings, not the index chart. Lately, with single names disappointing, leaning on baskets felt wise: less whiplash, still aboard when the rally narrows.

FIGS starred with a 12.4 pct leap that cleared early-year highs on the weekly chart. Its relative-strength rating of 95 impresses, and triple-digit growth backs the move. HeyGotrade figures support the mood: October 9 close at $15.78, market value $2.62B, P/E of 40.2, RSI at 67.5, price above its 50-day and 200-day averages, with a buy consensus. Public records show last quarter earnings of $0.15 against a $0.07 estimate, a 114 pct surprise. The MarketBeat calendar flags the next test after the close on November 5, with $0.07 earnings and $182.82M sales expected. Still, I stay careful: this growth springs from a tiny base, where 42 pct over five cents differs greatly from a large-cap leap, and the monthly chart still bears scars from a drawdown past 90 pct after the debut.

Kohl's closed up 4 pct with a breakout. Fundamentals look lumpy: sales shrink at a single-digit pace while last-quarter profit jumped by triple digits. Robinhood data frames it well: $21.17 on October 12, market value $2.4B, P/E of 8.88, dividend yield of 2.86 pct, a yearly range between $11.38 and $25.22, and volume above average. The chart side looks cheerier, with support at the 200-day line and a push toward the 10-week line. Flat-base setups like Target dot the same shelf, so this stir feels less like a solo story and more like a rally spreading across the aisle.

Victoria's Secret gained 7 pct inside a cup-with-handle shape. Trendline buyers inside the handle found an early door while price sits about 4 pct under the classic pivot. The last earnings spell shook it briefly, yet it healed within two weeks and climbed back above its 50-day line, so buyers never vanished. From a small base, 33 cents of profit and double-digit sales growth still count. Yahoo records note the full-year sales guide rose to a $7.03B to $7.13B band, and management sounds confident despite activist pressure.

This retail vigor recalls the saying that one flower never makes spring, yet a field of them invites hope. Stuffing every dollar into tech resembles packing all eggs in one basket: one headline shakes them together. Oil, shippers and refiners already offered shelter narratives, and retail joining them eases portfolio strain. Not everything must orbit smart software; sometimes money quietly slips between the shelves.

Spotting what holds firm on weak days remains my favorite drill: I scan baskets first and ask which group stands tall. Moderna holding upright while the drug group trembled last week is exactly the kind of catch this drill yields. Names closing in the upper half of their range, bouncing off the lows even in red, whisper that something special brews here. The relative-strength line, racing each name against the SP 500, serves as my compass; why accept single-stock risk that cannot beat the index.

Earnings season knocks with a crowded slate: roughly 25 SP 500 firms report this week, opened by the big banks, with September CPI data due alongside. The count passes one hundred in the weeks ahead, so knowing who reports when matters; even a neighbor's results can shake your shelf. I follow the earnings pages closely. November 5 marks the key stop for FIGS: those results will show whether the breakout walks on or folds.

My closing word concerns risk: a single day never sets a trend, up or down. I follow trends, deciding on proof that piles up day by day, never betting the house on one bar. So I enter this week hopeful but belted: small and gradual in retail names with firm trendlines, patient in tech unless supports snap. I will keep watching where the money flows.