SpaceX Stock From Bottom to Breakout: Inside the 60 Percent Surge

SpaceX has bounced more than 60 percent in two months: from the 104.83 dollar low on August 3 to about 168 dollars, back to a 2.2 trillion dollar valuation, with 16 percent gained in the last week alone and Elon Musk a trillionaire again. Behind the reversal that buried the post-IPO collapse thesis sit insider-lockup buying, a beat-and-raise quarter, a rocket that finally works, and a Wall Street rerating. Even the narrator, a self-declared bull, admits he expected a far deeper shakeout.

From IPO to lock-up: crash and base

The stock was listed at 135 dollars on June 12, closed day one at 161 dollars, and tagged 225.64 dollars on June 16 before collapsing 54 percent in seven weeks to the 104.83 dollar bottom worth roughly 1.4 trillion dollars. The narrator's June call was half right: the sub-1 trillion floor never appeared, yet 1.5 trillion would not hold either. As the media celebrated the fall, the low printed three days before the first big lock-up release, and the base formed far higher than feared.

On August 6 more than 900 million shares worth over 100 billion dollars unlocked and the public float doubled overnight; August 5 to 7 traded 28, 255 and 242 million shares, the heaviest volume since IPO week. And the stock rose: it closed that week at 133.30 dollars, the first leg of today's 60 percent run. The fear was insiders selling into ETF buying, yet early investors telling Business Insider (businessinsider.com) describe being torn between selling and holding, and the stock has absorbed all five lock-up waves so far.

Earnings and rocket: the first two engines

Two days before the lock-up, the company reported its first public quarter: revenue of 7.81 billion dollars beat the 6.8 to 6.9 billion consensus by nearly a billion and jumped from 4.69 billion the prior quarter, though profit is still absent. As ABC News (abcnews.com) reported, shares rose 9 percent into the print then slipped 6 percent after hours; finance professor Jay Ritter said the report would surely move the stock, direction unknown. Meanwhile Nasdaq-100 membership opened the door to retirement funds.

On September 28 Starship's Flight 14 reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 new V3 Starlink satellites, which in the SpaceX (spacex.com) account means the rocket did a real job for the first time . One engine failed on ascent yet the upper stage compensated; days later three missions in about 13 hours followed, spanning NASA astronauts, a 130-payload rideshare, and an NRO launch. Musk's promise of hourly flights in two to three years sounds like classic schedule-stretch habit, except it came one week after orbit was first achieved.

Wall Street is repricing: Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reiterated a 300 dollar target calling the stock cheap and getting cheaper ; TD Cowen sits at 200, Deutsche Bank at 235, CLSA at 250 dollars. Per Yahoo Finance (yahoo.com), Jonas asked forty institutional clients who owned the stock and not one hand went up: big money still stands aside a 2.2 trillion dollar company. On a growth-adjusted 0.3 times 2028 multiple, it trades 40 percent below the 0.5 peer median.

From XAI to XSI: the AI curtain

The deeper story is the rebrand: on February 2 XAI was absorbed for 250 billion dollars with Grok, the Memphis Colossus data centers and X, and four days after the IPO coding firm Cursor followed for 60 billion, all stock. In July the XAI name retired into SpaceX AI; on September 29 the US president ordered artificial to become super intelligence, and Musk answered yes to an X user. As Euronews (euronews.com) notes, SpaceXSI is the third name this year, and Grok counts 117 million monthly users.

The numbers back the curtain: last quarter rockets did 962 million, Starlink 4.3 billion, and AI 2.56 billion dollars, tripling in one quarter; of 18.4 billion in capex, 15.8 billion went to AI, 86 cents of every dollar . Anthropic pays 1.25 billion a month through 2029, and Google reportedly signed near 920 million a month. At 159 dollars the market priced rockets-plus-Starlink at 127 and the whole AI business at 32; inside the 300 dollar target, AI is more than half.

Orbital data centers, phones from space

Every AI company now faces the same wall, and it is not chips but power: former Google chief Schmidt says the industry is running out of electricity, while Musk told Davos the cheapest place for AI will be space within two to three years. A week later the FCC (fcc.gov) filing followed for an orbital data center of up to a million satellites adding as much as 100 gigawatts of AI compute a year against today's 1.4 total. In August came Star Mind AI1 with Nvidia Rubin chips, 75-meter panels, and a fourth-quarter 2027 first-launch target, confirmed on stage by president Shotwell.

The next leg is the phone: roughly 19.6 billion dollars of EchoStar spectrum was secured, officially 17 billion (8.5 cash plus 8.5 stock plus 2 billion of debt interest; echostar.com), FCC approval landed in May, and Starlink Mobile targets end of 2027. Last week Google's fridge-sized Suncatcher rode a Falcon 9 to orbit: even the rival buys its ticket from SpaceX. The Artemis lander, orbital refueling, and Musk's own just-discussions caveat on a Texas chip plant with TSMC all run through the same door: Starship.

Why insiders are not selling, and what the chart says

Since August 6 about 1.9 billion insider shares worth over 300 billion dollars have become eligible, yet the stock trades 55 percent above pre-unlock levels: the flood never came. Four reasons are given: taxes and Musk belief, past tender offers that already cashed out the needy, Musk's own 6.4 billion shares locked until June 2027 with 60 percent of pre-IPO stock still fenced, and every unlock creating its own buyer . The index mechanic is real: Nasdaq-100 weight grows with the float, trackers must buy, and September 18 printed a 336-million-share record. Ahead sit 330 million around October 9 and 24, 800 million on December 8, and 1.3 billion more after Q3.

The chart is nearly textbook : September built a 143 to 145 dollar base tested three times under a 155 to 158 dollar ceiling rejected twice; Friday closed 158.96 on 119 million shares for the breakout, now 168 dollars. The stock rides above the 20-day at 151 and the rising 50-day at 140 dollars, 25 percent over the IPO price, and today reclaimed the 165 dollar halfway mark of the 225 to 105 fall for the first time. Above sit 172.40 (June 30 high plus the 173 measured move), the 172 to 177 gap, 175.50 (30 percent over IPO), and the 61.8 percent retracement at 180. Below, 155 to 158 must hold as new support; RSI 68 with weekly stochastics at 93 flags short-term heat.

Calendar: catalysts and the Tesla wild card

First on the calendar is Starship Flight 15 (late October, early November), which Morgan Stanley calls the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO: Flight 14's success must prove repeatable. Then Q3 earnings (early November, consensus plus 14 cents): the first profitable quarter as a public company, and profitability is the single gate to S and P 500 membership. The wild card is Tesla: asked about a merger at the All-In Summit, Musk twice declined to say no, and per the Motley Fool (fool.com) the math keeps improving as SpaceX rises, with dilution down from 82 percent in July to 68 percent. In the closing sponsored segment the narrator profiles NYSE American gold and silver producer Goldgroup Mining (GORO).