Rising yields, earnings week and four stocks with room to run: Morningstar's September 28 briefing

Entering the final week of September, the market's question is crisp: which stocks still look buyable while bond yields keep climbing? In Morningstar's September 28 Morning Filter episode, Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski circle exactly that question; according to the episode summary on thefinancial.news, the agenda covers last week's yield and oil moves, this week's inflation and jobs data, Micron, Nike and McCormick earnings, Costco and Darden results, a Lennar and Berkshire Hathaway comparison, a look at the entertainment industry and four stocks that have rallied hard but are seen as having further to run.

Macro backdrop: yields up, calendar crowded

Two opposing winds shaped equities last week: long-term bond yields moved higher in America and globally, while oil prices retreated on a weekly basis. Morningstar's September outlook had the American market trading about 9 percent below its composite of fair value estimates at the end of August; yet the discount is almost entirely concentrated in seven mega-cap names: Nvidia, Alphabet, Broadcom, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Tesla. Strip those seven out and the rest of the index sits at fair value.

This week's calendar is packed: core PCE inflation lands on Wednesday and the September jobs report on Friday. Economists expect 100,000 new nonfarm jobs, 4.1 percent unemployment and 3.4 percent core inflation, according to the week-ahead preview on Investing.com. American futures were down 0.2 percent on Sunday evening while oil climbed above 93 dollars after the Iran peace proposal was rejected and the Hormuz closure was prolonged. Japanese government bond yields at multi-decade highs and the dollar index near a two-month high at 101.15 show America is not the only market starting the week nervously.

Earnings week: Micron, Nike, McCormick

The week's most discussed report belongs to Micron, a member of what the hosts call the triple-digit club; the company reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. Near-term fundamentals are exceptionally strong but the debate has shifted from growth to earnings durability, according to the Saxo analysis published via FXStreet: record revenue and margins can carry into 2027 only if tight supply, firm pricing and artificial intelligence demand persist. High-bandwidth memory sits at the center of the longer-cycle thesis since each new accelerator generation demands more bandwidth and absorbs meaningful manufacturing capacity. Still, rival capacity additions and progress by Chinese producers force investors to watch supply; at consensus earnings the stock screens at about 14.7 times 2026 and 7 times 2027 earnings, though cyclicals often look cheapest exactly at peak earnings.

Nike reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the close on Thursday with the bar already lowered by management itself: revenue down low-to-mid single digits, gross margin slightly up. Consensus sits near 11.35 billion dollars of revenue and 44 cents of earnings per share, according to the preview on baptistaresearch.com, while running has grown double digits for five straight quarters and added about 1 billion dollars of revenue as sportswear keeps falling double digits. Kylian Mbappe leaving Nike for On is a visible reminder the company is rebuilding its pull with athletes and culture, not just revenue. With the first full Sport Offense product cycle flagged for spring 2027, this print reads more as a credibility test than a verdict.

The setup looks more cautious at McCormick: the Zacks preview published on Yahoo Finance expects third-quarter earnings of 75 cents per share, down 11.8 percent from a year ago, on revenue of 1.98 billion dollars, up 14.7 percent, ahead of the October 1 report. The most accurate estimate sitting below consensus produces a negative 1.97 percent surprise indicator which, combined with the stock's number 4 Zacks rank, makes a beat hard to call. Whether momentum in flavor solutions can offset a stumbling American consumer business will be the central question on the call.

Leftovers and the housing bet

Two of last week's results tell the story of a split consumer. Official results published via GlobeNewswire show Costco's fourth-quarter net sales up 11.2 percent to 93.9 billion dollars and fiscal-year sales at 297.2 billion; earnings per share of 6.75 dollars included a 15-cent one-off benefit from tariff refunds. The company runs 939 warehouses and digital sales grew 19.5 percent. The official statement on PRNewswire puts Darden's first-quarter sales up 5.1 percent to 3.2 billion dollars with blended same-restaurant sales of 3.1 percent; LongHorn led at 6.2 percent while Olive Garden stayed at 1.1 percent. The company repurchased 222.3 million dollars of stock, declared a 1.62-dollar dividend and reaffirmed its fiscal-year outlook.

The episode's hottest comparison is in housing: Berkshire Hathaway has nearly doubled its Lennar stake since July. The company now holds about 25.4 million Class A shares plus 549 thousand Class B shares for 25.9 million shares in total, roughly a 10.9 percent stake worth 2.1 billion dollars, according to the September 26 report on CNBC; that is up 93 percent from 13.4 million shares at the end of June. Crossing the 10 percent threshold made Berkshire an insider with two-business-day disclosure duties: 212.4 million dollars of purchases between September 17 and 21 plus 136.4 million across Wednesday to Friday were disclosed. The stock still sits 20.1 percent down year to date; quarterly revenue fell 8 percent and missed expectations while the 30-year mortgage near 7 percent shrinks the buyer pool. CFRA analyst Cathy Seifert's classic value play tag plus Greg Abel's 6.8 billion-dollar Taylor Morrison move in June sharpen the question: for patient capital betting on a housing recovery, is Lennar or Berkshire itself the better buy?

The hosts also float the entertainment industry as an investment idea; the episode summary names no companies but the framework is familiar: Morningstar's star rating judges price against fair value estimates and uncertainty bands, with 4 and 5 stars meaning undervalued and 3 stars fairly valued. The closing four stocks extend the same logic: names that have rallied hard yet are seen as still having room against fair value. The summary on thefinancial.news does not say which four they are; the lesson for readers sits in the method rather than the list: remeasure whether the price-to-value gap has closed after every rally and every earnings report.

The big picture closes with the September outlook's warning: the growth category trades 17 percent below fair value according to Morningstar, an opportunity window for selective buyers; yet reversed momentum, the risk of leveraged accounts deepening any selloff and central banks preparing to tighten all narrow that window. Artificial intelligence buildout spending carrying growth through capital expenditure stands on one side, rising yields trimming valuations on the other. The episode's portfolio lesson summarizes that tension: instead of sizing up ahead of data, watch where earnings move the price-to-value gap.