Decision Day Nerves in Markets: Cautious Stocks While Gold Chases Records

The Mesele Ekonomi team went live minutes before the decision was announced. Host Semih Sakallı asked the questions while financial markets specialist Ali Ağaoğlu answered from the markets side. The format was clear from the start: pricing would be discussed, not wishful expectations.

The debate had been triggered when funding costs were pulled down from 40 to 37 in late August. That move had strengthened bets on a September cut and split market commentary in two. Ağaoğlu said openly that he found this optimism premature.

The first pillar of the cautious stance was inflation hovering around the 32 zone. Remarks by the central bank governor at the latest inflation report briefing also pointed to a tight stance continuing. While the headline eased, stickiness in services stood out as a risk.

The second pillar came from energy: Brent crude testing the 100 dollar mark was on the table. Such a move inflates the import energy bill and threatens the disinflation path. The show recalled that oil shocks have historically passed through to prices quickly.

Ağaoğlu turned eyes to the bond screen: the long term benchmark yield had only barely slipped below the 40 threshold. Had a fast cutting cycle been priced in, long term yields should have fallen visibly first. The screen was saying the opposite.

The message on stocks was crisp: without falling bond yields, a lasting bank led rally looked difficult. Short term rebound buying was possible, but the trend needed real rates to come down. Patience and selectivity were advised to investors.

Gold and silver were a different story, entering September with records. Global uncertainty and solid physical demand supported precious metals. The program discussed how the move in the ounce price was pulling domestic savers away from equities.

Relative calm on the currency front was explained by continuing carry trade appetite. Keeping real rates attractive was described as a condition for foreign inflows to persist. The warning was that premature easing could upset this balance.

The first market pricing after the announcement stayed consistent with the cautious scenario. The broadcast closed by pointing to the October and December meetings. The summary message was that the gradual path would continue unless data flows broke it.

A watch list for the period ahead was also drawn up: the monthly inflation trend, oil prices, the reserve path and the governor rhetoric. Unless these four headings deteriorated, the aggressive cut scenario looked shelved.