Funds Exhausted as the Purge Begins: Economy and Politics Into Autumn

The show opened with the autumn outlook question; the summer had not been calm and bigger swings were expected ahead. Economy and politics would be read together. Guests were Professor Özge Öner and Associate Professor Berk Esen.

The core thesis came early: the government is nearing an election whatever happens, with consequences to follow. Judicial pressure on the main opposition on one side and outreach moves toward Kurdish voters on the other were described. Both tactics ran at once.

Yet no new support was being generated, it was argued: the process was not advancing as wished and social resonance stayed limited. Resistance points on the opposition side were discussed. Political tension fed into the economic risk premium.

The data tour framed the rest of the year: enough data had piled up on year end inflation and growth paths. Barring a big global surprise the picture had cleared. Small downward revisions were discussed.

The data set of the week was counted: purchasing indexes, unemployment, growth and inflation prints had arrived back to back. The flow abroad was busy too. Next week would bring both the OVP and the rate decision.

The OVP to be announced by Cevdet Yılmaz had to be read together with the data tour, it was stressed. The gap between program targets and outturns was questioned. Trust was said to hinge on consistency more than prints.

The funds exhausted thesis was opened: fiscal room had narrowed while spending pressure rose. The purge emphasis was illustrated by judicial operations reaching economic actors. Visible billion dollar sums were claimed to be the tip of the iceberg.

On currency, the cost of the controlled path was debated: part of reserves was said to serve this goal. Broadly the economy dependence on external financing continued. An autumn volatility warning was issued.

The opposition chapter ran on municipalities and public tenders. The government was said to squeeze the opposition financially as well. The effect on investment appetite was questioned.

The close summarized autumn scenarios: the base case was controlled tension, the risk case a hard break. Viewers were advised to track the data calendar and the judicial agenda together. Next week the post OVP picture would be discussed.