Cut Expectations and Election Signals: The Economic Week With Erdal Sağlam

As every Wednesday, Semih Sakallı and Erdal Sağlam met for the agenda show. The agenda was crowded, with rapid developments in politics, the economy and the world. The central bank decision opened the discussion.

With less than 24 hours to the decision the picture was this: the raised inflation forecast near the 28 zone had opened room for the bank. Part of the market expected cuts to continue, part expected a hold. Sağlam said both scenarios were on the table.

Right in the middle of this debate, Brent crude breaking above 100 dollars spoiled the mood. A swelling energy bill would narrow the cutting room at the October and December meetings. The external shock came at a bad time.

The second headline of the week was the Medium Term Program. With its release, the targets and especially the inflation path came under the microscope. The realism debate started on day one.

The hottest line of the show was the election signals: stirring public spending, wage adjustment hints and populist steps were counted one by one. Sağlam argued the government was keeping the early election door ajar.

The bridge and highway agenda also leaked into the show, with figures around 180 million euros and operating transfer debates relayed. The budget contribution math of transport assets was questioned.

On the currency front the cost of relative stability drew attention: calm was preserved thanks to reserve accumulation and carry interest. Yet this calm was described as fragile, breakable by a single political wave.

On stocks, bank shares were described as locked to the rate path. Industrial firms felt the pressure of financing costs. Sector selectivity was advised to investors.

At the close, eyes turned to the decision text: even a single sentence could shape October expectations. The hosts promised to discuss OVP details and the decision aftershocks next week.

The general mood was this: technical gauges allowed cautious optimism, but the political calendar was strong enough to spoil any calculation. Viewers were urged to track data and rhetoric together.