Fed Hikes 25bp as Nasdaq Presses Resistances: S&P 7,650 and Nasdaq 29,500 in Focus

Tunç Şatıroğlu opened by defining the new format: no more regular Borsa Istanbul coverage, gold once a week, crypto only when needed, and Nasdaq as the permanent anchor. The episode is sponsored by Midas, with a giveaway until September 20 for first-time asset transfers — one MacBook and two iPads by lottery — and viewers are invited to open an account via the QR code or the link in the description. The message is clear: the channel shifts to a Nasdaq-centric, more frequent, sponsor-backed schedule.

On the Fed, the tone was disappointment; the narrative says Kevin Warsh gave in to pressure and hiked by 25bp, even though the macro backdrop tied to money supply did not call for it. The driver was a temporary oil spike that was already fading, with crude down about 3% from 110 to 103 dollars. A political read was added: a Fed that cut 50bp into an election under Biden and now hikes 25bp into an election under Trump looks inconsistent and overly tight.

The oil story was fleshed out; in normal conditions a balance around 100 dollars was expected because U.S. supply help and Strait of Hormuz flows were supportive. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were selling via pipelines, but the Saudi East-West line was hit in a Houthi attack and went offline, tightening supply and pushing crude above 100. Repair guidance swung from three to five weeks to within days, and as the uncertainty eased crude started to fall again; the loop was used to argue that crushing demand to fight oil-driven inflation made little sense.

A long digression laid out the technical philosophy; treating supports and resistances as razor-thin lines drawn with a 0.1 pen was called naive, with big players fully aware where retail clusters its stops. A large buyer prefers not to chase price higher but to accumulate where stop losses are flushed. The remedy offered is to watch time, wait at least an hour for the drop to stall, and ignore the hasty 'you missed it' chorus.

The S&P 500 case was shown on a 5-minute chart; the Fed decision hit at 21:00, price was slammed around 21:50 and tested support at 7,574 into 22:25. The decline then stalled and reversed, with the hourly view showing a second candle stabilizing before moving up. The panic was described as finished, the market shifting to 'the event is behind us, U.S. growth is fine' and buying again; the immediate resistance sits at 7,650 with 7,720 as the next threshold, and for those not yet positioned a break above these levels is framed as the buy trigger while existing longs are held.

Nasdaq showed a similar rebound; a break above 29,500 is presented as continuation, with holders staying long. On sectors, SMH is described as buyable after turning up from support, and the DRAM ETF has also bounced from support. The NASA ETF was read through Supertrend at 23.43, which had flipped to sell and has now flipped back to buy as price reclaimed the level, with the caveat that all these setups need confirmation after the U.S. open holds the move.

SpaceX was framed at resistance 155 — not a buy here, a buy on a break — with a sharp 5% spike into the Fed shown as two unusually large minute candles. The anecdote from the humor magazine Fırt and its 'How does it happen that it happens' bit was used to illustrate how a large buyer can quietly accumulate and then push. Valuation talk followed: classic multiples like price-to-sales or discounted cash flow miss the point in technology and space, the Coca-Cola template that built Buffett's wealth does not apply, and those positioned early capture the upside when potential reprices suddenly.

Rocket Lab, after stalling, has rejoined the advance; all Supertrend sell levels have been cleared and resistance sits between 65 and 75, with 66 as the practical trigger to watch. AST SpaceMobile was shown on a long-term view bouncing off deep lows and holding a multi-year trend line, with the 4-hour Supertrend close to flipping and resistance around 61.7 to 62. Firefly at 20.90 and Intuitive Machines at 14.50 on the 2-hour chart were listed as additional triggers; the rule stayed uniform: buy a support turn or a resistance break, sell a resistance rejection or a support break.

Negative divergences were kept out; IGV is not recommended as it turns down from a key resistance, and for cybersecurity name CIBR the level 101 must be cleared. The selective language avoids a buy-everything tone and keeps discipline on confirmed breaks. The segment closed with a tongue-in-cheek 'black help' note before shifting to the broad market.

The broader context was tied to practical trading via Midas and its extended-hours feature; the example given is buying the U.S. market at 02:00 at night or at 08:00–09:00 in the morning in Turkey without waiting for the open. Gold was said to be delivering the final leg higher that was anticipated, and crypto was noted as resilient despite the CLARITY Act not passing. Many assets approaching oversold and turning from critical supports reinforced the idea of a broad, not single-name, bounce.

The wrap framed market psychology as 'the worst news is priced'; the rate move after Warsh, the hit pipeline and the inflation shock are read as done, and the question 'what worse could come — an emergency hike or an even more closed pipeline?' is seen as supporting optimism. With those tails viewed as low probability, the closing advice is to stay calm and stick to the support and resistance discipline that was laid out.