Fear is loud right now, yet the best bargains mature quietly for investors who can wait until the end of 2026. The speaker lays out the gap between his own seven picks and the Magnificent Seven, with his basket down 16.63 percent since inception while the Magnificent Seven rose 31 percent. Over nine months his names fell 19 percent against an 8.4 percent gain for the rival group, and 7.6 points of that gain arrived in the last three months. According to 247WallSt the Magnificent Seven reached an all-time high on September 22 2026 after the brutal early-2026 selloff.
The method rests on ten-year assumptions and forces a fresh review whenever the price changes the thesis. It favors the long-run weighing machine over the short-run voting impulse and warns never to buy merely because the internet or a famous investor says so. Every company gets separate revenue growth, free cash flow margin and multiple ranges. The required return stays fixed at 9.5 percent a year, and all seven mid cases compound above 15 percent annually. Quarterly updates teach the process instead of headlines and favor decisions that let owners sleep well.
Ulta: Resilient Beauty Retail
Ulta stands as the largest beauty retailer in the United States, combining makeup, skincare, hair, fragrance and salon services under one roof. More than 44 million loyalty members and recession-resistant self-care spending give the model a defensive character. Bath Body Works products now sell in more than 600 stores and broaden the in-store experience. Quarterly sales reached 3 billion dollars with 9 percent growth and the store network stayed productive. Same-store sales slowed from 6.7 percent to 3.8 percent yet kept growing, while the stock fell 8 percent year to date.
Ulta carries a 23 billion dollar market value and about a 27 billion dollar enterprise value including lease-related debt near 4 billion dollars. It generated 1 billion dollars of free cash flow last year, trading near 20 times cash flow with a high return on capital. The model assumes revenue growth of 3, 5 and 7 percent, cash margins of 9.5, 10 and 10.5 percent, and multiples of 17, 23 and 20. According to Reuters, Ulta raised fiscal 2026 sales and profit guidance on August 27 after a quarter with 3 billion dollars in sales up 8 percent on marketing and assortment strength. The model points to a 455 dollar low, an 830 dollar high and a 615 dollar mid case.
Southwest: Record Revenue in a Tough Business
The speaker accepts the tough airline economics from the start, recalling pre-Covid years without a loss and clockwork margins near 10 to 15 percent. The bull case shows a record quarter with 8.4 billion dollars of revenue up 16 percent and earnings per share more than doubling. The bear case centers on a 900 million dollar jump in fuel cost in a single quarter. According to Southwest, the company reported record operating and managed business revenues in the second quarter announced July 22 2026, expanded margins despite the fuel spike, and guided fiscal adjusted earnings of 3.25 to 4.25 dollars per share. At 42 dollars the market value sits near 21 billion dollars and enterprise value near 40 billion dollars.
Liabilities climbed from 16 billion dollars toward 25 billion dollars and have started to decline, marking the start of balance sheet repair. Five-year average free cash flow stands at 1.23 billion dollars, against pre-Covid years of 3, 3, 1.7 and 2.1 billion dollars. The speaker believes more than 3 billion dollars on 30 billion dollars of revenue is possible again. Analyst earnings expectations nearly double from 3.38 dollars to 7.30 dollars over four years. The model uses revenue growth of 3, 5 and 7 percent with cash margins of 8, 11 and 14 percent, pointing to a 133 dollar mid case and a 28 percent annualized return.
PayPal: A Cheap Payments Giant Betting on Turnaround
PayPal runs a powerful payments network with Venmo, Braintree and hundreds of billions of dollars in merchant volume. Free cash flow rose from 5.3 billion dollars to 6.6 billion dollars, leaving the stock near 7 times cash flow. Return on capital printed 9, 8, 10, 11 and then 14.5 percent last year. About 24 percent of shares were retired over five years. According to SEC filings, PayPal reported the second quarter ended June 30 2026 on July 28 2026 from San Jose with a transformation plan and stabilized branded checkout volume. Management raised profit guidance as quarterly sales rose 5 percent while operating profit fell 8 percent.
Analyst earnings estimates climb from 5.38 dollars to 7.58 dollars, implying more than 150 dollars at a 20 multiple. Earlier takeover talk near 60.50 dollars a share ended without a deal, and a 60 dollar bid near 40 dollars was viewed as too low. The model assumes revenue growth of 3, 5 and 7 percent with cash margins of 14, 17 and 20 percent. The mid case spans 110 to 126 dollars against 53 dollars today, or about 23 percent annualized. The speaker sees fair value near 120 to 130 dollars today, powered by disciplined share repurchases and compounding returns .
Alibaba: Cloud Acceleration Meets Spending Debate
Alibaba combines e-commerce, cloud and payments at the scale of 1.4 billion people. The stock sits near 105 dollars after running from 130 to 140 dollars toward 190 dollars on artificial intelligence excitement. Cloud growth near 45 percent marked the fastest pace in 22 quarters. According to alibabagroup.com, Alibaba reported a strong quarter on August 20 2026 with the fastest cloud growth in 22 quarters and triple-digit AI revenue growth for the 12th straight quarter. Yet AI spending jumped 75 percent, about 10 billion dollars of new shares were issued, and free cash flow turned negative on cloud capital expenditure.
Revenue grew by 41 billion dollars while debt stayed low, though the dividend decision puzzled holders. The founder buying chatter, reportedly above 600 million Hong Kong dollars after earlier sales, is shared carefully with a reportedly caveat. Analyst profit expectations rise from 6.50 dollars to 11 dollars over three years as cloud-led growth accelerates. The model uses revenue growth of 5, 8 and 11 percent with cash margins of 10, 13 and 16 percent after trimming for investment. It yields a 115 dollar low, a 360 dollar high and a 209 dollar mid case, with cloud computing and AI monetization at the center.
Adobe: Record Results Against AI Fear
Adobe owns enormous switching costs through Photoshop, Premiere and subscription creativity tools. AI fear punished the stock even as sales set a record of 6.76 billion dollars with 13 percent growth. According to Business Wire, Adobe posted fiscal third-quarter results for the period ended August 28 2026 with record revenue of 6.76 billion dollars up 13 percent, annual recurring revenue of 27.50 billion dollars and record operating cash flow of 2.52 billion dollars. AI-first annual recurring revenue rose 150 percent year over year and monthly active users passed 1 billion. During the leadership transition, Shantanu Narayen guided fourth-quarter revenue of 6.80 to 6.85 billion dollars.
Gross margin sits near 90 percent, and free cash flow of 10.3 billion dollars runs well above net income of 7.2 billion dollars. The company trades near 9 times cash flow while revenue compounded 11 percent yearly over three years. Roughly 9.5 to 10 million shares were repurchased in the quarter. The model assumes revenue growth of 4, 7 and 10 percent with cash margins of 35, 38 and 41 percent. Cash-flow valuation gives a 360 dollar low, an 830 dollar high and a 550 dollar mid case. The speaker finds 237 dollars, down from 425 dollars, more attractive for a stronger business.
Nike and Sprouts: Brand Patience and Grocery Defense
Nike carries an uncopyable brand moat , yet the stock slid from 180 dollars in late 2021 toward 33 dollars. The speaker had said interest would return below 100 dollars, and management buying near 42 dollars in April for about 1 million dollars each added confidence. According to Nike, the company reported full fiscal 2026 revenues of 46.4 billion dollars flat on a reported basis and down 2 percent currency-neutral, with fourth-quarter sales of 11.0 billion dollars down 1 percent reported. China sales fell 12 percent last quarter and revenue misses continued. The model gives a 46 dollar low, a 100 dollar high and a 70 dollar mid case including dividends.
Sprouts serves label-reading shoppers with fresh, natural and organic groceries in a defensive category. Gross margin near 37 percent towers over grocers, while own brands near 40 to 60 percent margins push net margin toward 7 to 8 percent. According to Sprouts, the company reported the second quarter ended June 28 2026 on July 29 2026, with chief executive Jack Sinclair noting results matched expectations. The stock trades near 65 dollars, and the speaker keeps adding below 80 dollars after buying in the low 30s. The model assumes revenue growth of 4, 6 and 8 percent with margins of 5, 6 and 7 percent, pointing to an 80 dollar low, a 185 dollar high and a 122 dollar mid case.
Key moments
AI commentary
"Seven names reviewed one by one; model, cash flow and target price summarized in a single framework."
AI assessment
The mid cases all clear 15 percent annualized, yet cheap prices alone do not make a safe investment. Ulta and Adobe stand out on cash generation, while Southwest and PayPal depend more on successful turnarounds. Alibaba and Nike hinge on cloud strength and a return to retail channels. A basket mindset with staged buying therefore looks healthier than a single-stock bet.
Key risks cluster around airline leverage, payments competition, Chinese consumption and heavy AI capital spending. The Sprouts legal overhang and Alibaba share issuance dent trust. Offsetting forces include buybacks, very high gross margins and defensive categories. The speaker discipline of quarterly reviews and rechecking the thesis when prices move offers a sensible way to manage these risks.
Price discipline is the strongest part of this work because every target is quantified as low, mid and high scenarios. Southwest near 42 dollars, PayPal near 53 dollars and Adobe near 237 dollars balance upside against present uncertainty. Measuring long-term weight rather than short-term votes gives patient, cash-flow-focused investors a useful roadmap.
Sources
9 links; no other published story cites them. Stories sharing a link do not confirm each other; a source's origin is not inferred from how often it is cited.
- @youtube.com YouTube — Everything Money
- @reuters.com Reuters — Ulta Beauty raises forecasts
- @nike.com Nike — Fiscal 2026 results
- @sprouts.com Sprouts — Second Quarter 2026 results
- @sec.gov SEC — PayPal Q2 2026 earnings release
- @businesswire.com Business Wire — Adobe record Q3 results
- @southwest.com Southwest — Second Quarter 2026 results
- @alibabagroup.com Alibaba Group — AI cloud growth
- @247wallst.com 247WallSt — Magnificent Seven high
stocks · value investing · ulta · southwest · paypal · alibaba · adobe