Mobilization Fears Before the Vote: Young Russians Head for Georgia Again

Months of speculation have converged on this weekend's parliamentary elections. The DW report says some young men are already leaving for neighboring Georgia because they expect the government to announce a new mass mobilization for the war in Ukraine right after the vote. Footage from Penza shows two women trying to block a car taking their relatives to a draft assembly point, a scene the video says has become more common. The Kremlin denies any plan and President Vladimir Putin has called the rumors utter nonsense, but the memory of the 2022 partial call-up undercuts those assurances.

From Penza to Batumi — why a student quit university to leave

In Batumi, a young man called Alex — not his real name — says he dropped out of university to leave Russia. He describes regular visits to his campus by people from the draft office or back from the war trying to persuade students, and says staying to finish his degree might have meant losing the chance to exit at all. He says he cannot live in a country committing such atrocities under such a political leader. The video frames his case as part of a broader pressure that reaches into higher education, not only the front line.

Why Georgia stands out is clear. It shares a 920-kilometer land border with Russia, Russians can enter without a visa and stay up to 12 months, and crossing by car or on foot via Verkhny Lars leaves a lighter and faster trail than flying, where travelers fear being stopped or turned back at the airport. During the last major drive in 2022 Georgia received tens of thousands, with Reuters and Guardian reporting waits of up to 48 hours and queues stretching for kilometers. Alexander, who stayed in Tbilisi and built an IT services business serving other relocated professionals, says life there feels calmer than Moscow where he always felt everything might fall apart; his family joined him in 2023 and he now plans only a year or two ahead.

Electronic summons, narrowing Europe and a new deterrent

A coordinator of an NGO in Batumi supporting people affected by the war says options have narrowed. Georgia and Armenia remain the main destinations, with Kazakhstan and Serbia as alternatives, but relocation programs in Europe have been steadily scaled back. For now there is no major wave into Georgia comparable to 2022, but that could change quickly if the Kremlin takes the unpopular step after the election. Politico, citing border data, reports more than 113,000 Russians left via Upper Lars in a single recent week, a spike that mirrors growing anxiety.

What erodes trust is the phrasing of denials. Natalia Kovaleva of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia programme notes that just days before the 2022 partial mobilization, the head of the State Duma defence committee and other officials reassured the public that no general mobilization would happen, then a call-up of 300,000 followed. Putin's formulation earlier this month that there is no need as of today leaves room for tomorrow, she says, so people take it with a pinch of salt. Meduza and Politico note similar recent denials at the United Nations and from the Kremlin spokesman, while data collection on reservists and employer reporting continue.

The biggest change since 2022 is legal infrastructure. A law adopted in March made electronic summonses mandatory; rolled out from 2023 and applied nationwide in 2025, they take effect as soon as issued online, automatically notify border services and impose a travel ban. Non-appearance can trigger penalties affecting loan applications, buying or selling property and even driver's licences. In July the National Guard issued a decree on guarding against dangers arising during mobilization and wartime, and independent outlet Meduza reported a directive for regional administrations to cut male staff by 10 to 15 percent by October to make personnel available. Together these steps close the paper-summons loophole that in 2022 let up to one million people leave before a summons had to be signed.

The war has also moved closer to everyday life. Kovaleva says that in 2026 Ukraine's drone campaign against oil refineries and commercial infrastructure across Russia has made the war a prominent feature beyond border regions, undermining trust in the state's ability to protect citizens. Fuel shortages and inflationary pressure have followed, with businesses left to shoulder protection costs. Militarily, the scale of need is hard to gauge without casualty numbers, but independent observers report a growing manpower gap and slower battlefield progress than the Kremlin had estimated. Recruitment has expanded through universities and more coercive street pick-ups like the Penza clip, shifting from financial inducements — a reported target of 409,000 contract soldiers by end-2026 — toward compulsion that could intensify after the vote.