Tunç Şatıroğlu: Market Bottomed — New High First, Then October Pullback Scenario

The overall market picture is positive today: Nasdaq futures are testing the 30,800 resistance, while the S&P 500 targets a new high toward 7,800. The speaker reads yesterday's 2-hour and 4-hour chart 'bottom reversal' formations as proof of exit from oversold territory and the return of risk appetite. Falling oil prices and the retreat in 10-year US Treasury yields show the macro backdrop is also supportive.

Geopolitical risk eased, technical structure improved

The thaw in US-China relations and the containment of military tensions around Iran are assessed as having removed 'black swan' scenarios from market pricing. The speaker notes the rally he expected since early August is now visible on charts, but emphasizes this is not merely a technical bounce — it is driven by a shift in fundamental risk perception.

September-October scenario: new high first, then correction

The expectation remains: a new peak (Nasdaq 30,800+, S&P 500 7,800) appears within September (days remaining), followed by a more meaningful correction starting in October. This scenario has not changed since August; only the timing slipped a few weeks. The speaker argues the 'new high first, then pullback' sequence remains valid and the market structure supports it.

Semiconductors and software sector strong

SMH ETF closed flat yesterday but moved higher today. IGV (software) held the critical 106.50 support, while CIBR (cybersecurity) is testing resistance that is expected to break. DRAM ETF also showed a strong bounce from the 60 support level. All these sub-sectors are outperforming the broad Nasdaq recovery.

Space stocks: NASA ETF, SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile

NASA ETF continues higher with a 23.75 stop-loss. SpaceX dropped below the 150.50 moving average, 145 becomes new support; a reclaim of the average is awaited for new entries. Rocket Lab hit ATH at 75, 76 is critical — the reversal of the Supertrend sell signals from Jan and June 2024 could form a 'buy' signal at this level. AST SpaceMobile has not yet launched; a close above 60.70 opens an entry window.

Space data-center thesis: Google, Intel, SpaceX moves

Today's news of Google's 'Project Suncatcher' orbital TPU test (Transporter-18, planned Oct 1) and Intel developing space-grade chips, combined with SpaceX's Starlink infrastructure, makes the 'orbital data center' argument concrete. The core thesis: Earth's energy bottleneck and cooling costs can be solved in space with near-zero-cost solar energy and radiative cooling. AST SpaceMobile (direct-to-cell), Iridium, and Rocket Lab form the connectivity layer of this ecosystem.

Future of the space ecosystem and valuation

The speaker says targets like $250-800 for SpaceX and much higher for Rocket Lab cannot be modeled with today's frameworks — the market has not yet priced this potential. Using the 'final frontier' metaphor, he stresses the real value lies not in rocket launches but in orbital compute and connectivity layers. The message: these stocks will be re-rated when the time comes, but patience is required for now.