A record September near $26 billion
The September picture unveiled by Trade Minister Omer Bolat in Istanbul is striking: merchandise exports climbed 15.4 percent year on year to $25.976 billion. According to Takvim, that marks the highest September value in the republic's history. Speaking to BloombergHT, Bolat said exports have performed strongly except for the year's first quarter, with records broken in five recent months. In his words, September was an extraordinary month for exports.
The nine-month accumulation backs the picture: export growth reached 5.2 percent over the first three quarters while annualized exports hit $283.7 billion. According to CNNTurk, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced the figures on his social media account. The $282 billion year-end target was thus beaten by $1.7 billion with three months to spare. BloombergHT reports the government expects a record October too, signaling the export push will continue despite two working days lost to the Republic Day week.
Deficit narrows despite import pressure
As striking as exports is the rebalancing on the import side. BloombergHT data put September imports at $31.2 billion, up 5.9 percent, while the trade deficit narrowed 24.8 percent from a year earlier to $5.2 billion. According to CNNTurk, Simsek acknowledges that rising commodity prices are pushing imports higher, yet argues the widening of the deficit has stayed below the scenarios feared when tensions began. The cost shock from abroad is real, in other words, but the export engine is running faster.
The macro counterpart of this balance shows in the current account . Simsek said the deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to hold at 2.6 percent despite geopolitical strains. Bazaar Times (bazaartimes.com) notes the annualized deficit stood at $38.9 billion as of June, with the second-quarter ratio estimated near 2.3 percent. The same outlet points to external debt rollover ratios of 161 percent for banks and 246 percent for the real sector as evidence that external financing access remains intact. The deficit looks contained, and the funding channel looks open.
Reading today's figures as an overnight leap would miss the backstory. Long-run data shared by the Ticaret Bakanlığı show combined goods and services exports hit a record $390 billion in autumn 2025, with Turkey's share of world merchandise exports climbing to an all-time high of 1.07 percent in 2024. Bolat told BloombergHT that agriculture is enjoying a fertile year and industrial output remains the locomotive of export growth. In an economy growing for 24 consecutive quarters, calling exports the engine of growth fits a longer pattern.
A new era for FX conversion support
Behind the records sits a policy move designed to ease exporters' burden. The simplification announced by Simsek loosens the FX conversion support mechanism and widens the pool of eligible firms. Under the framework shared by the TCMB, the support began in early 2023 at 2 percent, then temporarily rose to 3 percent in May 2025. An August 2026 reform opened a new era from October 1: the pledge to buy no foreign currency for a month gives way to a foreign-currency position ratio test, with firms at or below 10 percent qualifying. The TCMB says roughly 44,000 firms have benefited so far, and their share among all exporters reached 34 percent in 2026.
One more step on financing: the growth cap on SME loans was lifted from 4.5 to 5 percent. Bolat told BloombergHT that financing for production and exports will be supported without deviating from the price-stability goal. Taken together, access to finance and emphasis on value added send a clear message: the record is not merely celebrated but backed with policy. October data will show whether that backing holds.
AI commentary
"What impresses me most is not the headline record but the narrowing gap behind it: the trade deficit shrank by a quarter from a year earlier despite import pressure. The question I keep turning over is whether this momentum signals a lasting shift or simply a strong cyclical moment."
AI assessment
The strongest objection is that the records are partly flattered by calendar and base effects. September's 15.4 percent jump builds on a relatively soft month last year, and a single month is thin ground for claims of structural transformation. With import growth contained at 5.9 percent, each fresh wave of energy and commodity prices could reverse the balance. The headline is strong, in short, but how much of the wind behind it is permanent remains unclear.
There are gaps in the dataset too. The ministers' statements give a September snapshot; order books, unit prices and market-by-market breakdowns are missing. Without knowing which sectors sold to which regions, the quality of the record cannot be measured. Services exports and tourism revenues sit outside this picture as well; judging the full current-account balance requires waiting for the balance-of-payments data.
The position of the sources deserves a note. Both ministers announcing the figures own the picture politically; the emphasis on records blends with the need to project confidence. That does not make the numbers wrong — independent data confirm them — but it shapes the chosen frame: risks are told quietly, successes loudly. The TCMB's technical note and the Ticaret Bakanlığı's long series matter for this reason; they offer a chance to balance the political narrative with cool data.
The practical takeaway is this: the window is open for exporters, but the window depends on external demand and policy. Eased FX conversion support plus expanded SME lending should comfort the cost calculations of small and mid-sized exporters in particular. Yet with energy prices and geopolitical risks still on the table, one month of data is early for taking long-term positions. October and November figures will show whether this story is a record or a rhythm.
Sources
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exports · foreign trade · current account · mehmet simsek · tcmb