It's Happened: Nasdaq and S&P 500 at New Highs as Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Line Up

Jason Pizzino records this episode on vacation, in one take with no edits, and the intent is clear: put new highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, a relatively firm Bitcoin and a slightly eager tone in metals on the same table and separate what is confirmed from what needs patience. At the open he flags fresh record levels for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, says Bitcoin is holding reasonably well while gold and silver look a touch more bid, and maps the day — long-term S&P 500 first, then short-term, because the quarterly numbers alone shape the story. The like-and-subscribe nudge and the free Substack note sit outside the core; the TIA Pro mention frames a portfolio angle, but the spine remains chart reading and volume.

Quarter math: from 28% to the sub-14% bar

The second quarter was powerful: about 15% for the S&P 500 and about 28% for the Nasdaq, and the question is what typically follows. Leaning on history, Pizzino sets a plain expectation — after such a large quarter, the next one usually delivers less than half that gain; for Nasdaq that frames the third quarter below 14% after a 28% print. With seven to eight days left in the quarter the score is around 1.8%: far below the bar, yet a new high has still arrived. The path was paved by a sharp sell-off in technology in June, July and August and a rebound from the low; that recovery carries price back to record terrain and is read together with the monthly yellow line as 'no change in direction yet.'

The long-term view pairs two ideas: the monthly line keeps pointing up and accelerating, while the near term is likened to the run between 1998 and early 2000 — a climb that could turn even more exuberant. The 18-year U.S. land and property cycle is described as intertwined with the equity cycle because both lean on credit; if credit lifts prices, the peak forms slowly. Pizzino notes housing prices starting to soften and calls the expectation of an overnight collapse after a single event a beginner's view. What markets show now is a broad slowdown; neither equities nor housing flip in a day, turns take time.

The monthly line, Nasdaq and what volume says

On the monthly scale the yellow line remains upward and the latest record is confirmed on the quarterly chart. For September, with eight days left to close, Pizzino highlights a tight month: no break above last month's high and no break below the low, hence a contracting range inside which volume looks middling versus August but not poor for September. A direct comparison to the late-1990s build into the dot-com peak is treated as difficult, since that era coincided with the launch of Nasdaq E-mini futures and a steady rise in turnover; as the market matured, the volume profile changed, so the cleanest read is versus recent months. In that window the verdict is 'not alarming, keep watching.'

The short-term signal map starts with the three-day down mark in May that hit Nasdaq and the S&P 500 together; the call for slower growth and a sideways range afterward played out. At the bottom, the 30-31 July candle stands out — an engulfing body that fully covers the prior day, backed by above-average volume, flagged in real time as a strong turn. After that, a narrow consolidation forms above the 50% line at 28,800, viewed as constructive. On 16 September Nasdaq Prints a higher low while the S&P 500 makes a lower low, hinting Nasdaq may push toward resistance first; Pizzino tags 29,800 and then 30,000 as the next levels. After the new high the 50% band becomes redundant; tracking shifts to weekly price and weekly volume, and as long as higher lows and higher highs persist, continuity remains the base case.

S&P 500 base, 7,780 and the ETF tape

The S&P 500 narrative builds a similar skeleton: after a three-bar pressure on weekly and daily scales, price holds above 50%, stays above prior highs and develops heavy overlap that reads as profit-taking roughly balanced by buying. Pizzino reads this balance without needing headlines — overlapping candles, a prior resistance turned to support and the 50% zone together form a constructive cue. Strength began to build around early September, bases were tested and price pushed up; volume is again 'not ideal but not broken.' Holding above 7,780 keeps the upside attempt alive; a drop below 7,700 shifts focus back toward 7,600 and 7,500. The new record arrives as expected while the uptrend holds, though staying power at the high needs separate follow-through.

The basket of largest constituents confirms the same tape. The biggest Nasdaq exchange-traded funds printed fresh records on Monday and Tuesday — Pizzino logs the tape on Wednesday morning Australia time, Tuesday evening in the United States — with the artificial-intelligence basket pushing through 65 toward 67 and semiconductors, a bit behind, crossing the 50% line near 560 to trade around 573 and entering a stronger mode that lifts Nasdaq's record attempt from below. A similar 'more strength building' note is added for the S&P 500; in short, headline indices and thematic baskets point the same way.

Yields, gold and silver in build mode

On rates, 2-year and 10-year yields push higher while the 30-year lags a touch, and last week's rise in rates happens alongside rising equities. Pizzino is not surprised; late-cycle equities can rise with yields and that alone is not a collapse trigger. On the bond side prices hold without slipping beyond prior breakdown points; the fear has faded near term though a bond issue to watch remains. The priority is framed as 'focus on markets that are moving,' which turns the lens back to metals.

Gold looks more constructive after yesterday's close: a higher low, rising volume toward the average and steady footing around 4,200 defending 4,300 and preparing a retest toward 4,400 and 4,500. The lack of explosive volume is seen as natural outside a breakout or breakdown; the current rise counts as building volume. Pizzino has flagged 4,800 and holding above it as the critical line for months, arguing price action matters more than narratives and that fear and greed remain the two unchanging drivers across decades. Near term, a return to 4,500 is framed as positive building. Silver mirrors the constructive tone: back above 67, through its 50% line with good volume and a higher low, it eyes 70 and then 72 where a double top sits; a break there could open room toward the 80s and 90s for a test of long-term resistance.

Oil, the Magnificent Seven and chips

Oil is threshold-driven at 87 dollars. Major lows at 75 and 80 remain unbroken, so the floor holds; below 87 the case for lower prices opens, and after hovering around the pivot for several days price is pressing the line again. The delivery is deliberately 'I can be wrong and still make money,' separating correctness from profitability. In the Magnificent Seven scan Apple makes a new high while Amazon shows no breakdown, Google holds above 50% with no meaningful breach of time-price balance, Meta rockets toward 740 without yet printing a fresh record but its push through 50% flips the short-term view from cautious to constructive, Microsoft has sat well above 50% for six weeks with bullish gaps, Nvidia trades around 230, Space Exploration around 150 and Tesla around 220-250; after July's break Tesla edges higher but has made little net progress since late 2021, a flat return once inflation is considered. Chips and adjacent names drive the week's action: AMD rips for two days to test new highs, Intel pushes similarly and Micron reclaims the 50% line, all described in one frame. Pizzino openly says his earlier call looked for a 50% to 80% retrace and the deepest cut this time stopped at 41%, nine points short of the low end; getting the direction right still mattered. MicroStrategy keeps Monday's strong candle, with 195-200 as the key band and a cycle shape similar to prior bottoms; Pizzino doubts a repeat of the 4,000% run from 80 yet sees tradable ranges intact. With Nasdaq and the S&P 500 refreshing highs and big tech plus semis participating, the headline move looks broad rather than narrow.

Bitcoin: the 83,000 break, the 92,000 gate and the stablecoin tell

Bitcoin's break above 83,000 is covered in detail, with the next layer defined as the 50% line near 92,000 and the monthly lower high near 98,000; Pizzino frames 92,000 to 98,000 as the coming main zone. Sentiment is described as a pendulum that swings to extreme greed each cycle before pulling back to fear — a higher low on fear after a greed peak is viewed as constructive for another leg, whether the next high breaks depends on the next tape. The technical roadmap leans on the 50-week average: break it, consolidate at a higher low near 50%, then push toward the monthly lower high; examples include 2022's break and higher-low consolidation, the 2019-2020 large break with a six-month pullback and the pandemic interruption, and the year-long wide band between 8,000 and 12,000 after that. This time the build is relatively short, so the hope is momentum holds long enough to draw in capital and positive sentiment. A corroborating tell comes from stablecoin dominance: the lines for USDT and combined USDT plus USDC have broken below prior lows and prior highs; the solo USDT line has pulled back similarly, lifting confidence for higher prices. The invalidation is spelled out — a sharp rise in stablecoin dominance back toward roughly 8% on the long view would put the bullish case on watch; near-term wiggles are treated as normal. Among altcoins the tone is selective but alive: Ethereum breaks nicely to fresh highs, Solana holds around 118 near two days ago, Ripple sits in the 1.50-1.60 band without yet clearing 1.70 and exchange volume has turned up again to challenge the high band around 47 to 48 billion dollars.