From Hegseth to Inflation: Poll Warnings Before the US Midterms

CNN's latest Enten roundup compresses six weeks of midterm pressure into one segment, stacking polling averages , university surveys and prediction markets side by side. The point is not a single bad number but momentum — many indicators moving the same way. Each section should therefore be read comparatively, not in isolation. The result is a cross-partisan picture that is easy to track from the kitchen table to the Senate map.

A Historic Slide for the Defense Secretary

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was at net -9 in January before the Iran war build-up and now sits at net -25 overall. Among independents the drop is steeper, from -20 to -43 , an additional 23-point loss. That is more than double the unpopularity in the general electorate and close to triple. The slide helps explain why House leadership preferred to avoid a floor vote — voting with the administration would mean voting against the public mood.

The historical echo is stark. In October 2006 Donald Rumsfeld hit -25 , the second-lowest ever for a defense secretary amid the Iraq war, before falling to an all-time low after the midterms. Hegseth now matches that -25 line , tying the historical near-bottom. On war support the gap has widened: in September 2006 net support for Iraq was -2 , while net support for the Iran war today is -23 , about 21 points more negative. The secretary's personal standing and war sentiment now sit at a similar negative level.

Foreign-Policy Credibility Erodes

On Russia-Ukraine, Trump held a narrow +2 edge over Kamala Harris on trust in 2024. Today his net approval is -33 overall and -53 among independents , a swing of roughly 35 points . The move from a 24-hour peace promise to the current picture has hardened a promise-not-kept perception. Enten's point is that the erosion has bled from a single file into the broader foreign-policy grade.

The Zelensky comparison sharpens the picture. Trump's net favorability sits at -18 while Zelensky is at +13 , a 31-point gap in Zelensky's favor inside the United States. The overall foreign-policy score has also flipped, from +2 at the start of the second term to -31 now, with independents at -41 — a 33-point negative move. A topic that helped return Trump to the White House in 2024 now offers Democrats a clear attack surface ahead of the midterms.

The Marquette University Law School national survey of September 16, 2026 puts Trump's handling of inflation at net -61 , the lowest ever recorded for any president on that question. A Fox News survey looks a touch softer at -50 , yet that too would be a record for any pre-Trump president. The partisan split is negative everywhere: -95 among Democrats, -74 among independents and -4 among Republicans . In the same Marquette data, approval on inflation is 19% , on the economy 28% , on the Iran war 26% .

Rate expectations have repriced in parallel. Prediction markets put the chance of another Fed hike in December at 71% , up from 27% a month ago, on the view that inflation remains above target. That is the combination the White House least wants: a record-low inflation grade alongside a rising rate outlook. Markets are increasingly pricing a longer tightening path.

From the Kitchen Table to the Ballot Box

Pump prices are the most visible kitchen-table item, and Trump's disapproval on gas has hit 80% , the highest ever recorded — no prior president has reached that level. Google searches for gasoline are up 357% in a month, with a 40-cent monthly rise and the market-implied chance of exceeding $4.80 a gallon jumping from 31% to 61% . Among households earning under $100k, 65% call gas a major problem versus 45% above that line, concentrating the pain inside Trump's own base .

Senate math has moved with it. Market odds for Democrats to retake the Senate rose from 48% to 59% in a week, crossing the critical threshold. For the House, Marquette has Democrats at 54-41 among likely voters and 50-42 among registered voters . With gasoline and inflation both repriced negatively at once, the twin engine that once hurt Democrats now works against Republicans.

On immigration, Latino voters have shifted sharply. In fall 2024 Trump led Harris by +5 among Latinos on immigration trust; today his net approval with Latinos is -39 , a 44-point swing. Overall favorability tells the same story: from +6 in January 2025 to -34 now , a 40-point drop. At the state level, Latino favorability in Florida moved from +17 in November 2024 to -25 now (42 points) , and in Texas from +5 to -34 (39 points) . Those moves help explain why contests that have long been out of reach — a first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988 or a first Democratic governor in Florida since 1994 — are back in play .