40 Earnings, 4 Days: EPS Surprises and Next-Day Reactions in the October 13-16 Week

The busiest earnings week of October is at the door: 40 companies report across the four trading days of October 13-16. Tuesday opens with banking giants JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo alongside healthcare heavyweight UnitedHealth; Wednesday hands the baton to Bank of America and Morgan Stanley; Thursday peaks with 16 reports; Friday closes with the regionals. In between come healthcare majors, chipmakers ASML and TSM, and a handful of industrial and logistics names. This article walks through each day's schedule, the EPS surprises these companies posted over the last four quarters, and how their shares reacted the day after. Because the first lesson of this list is simple: a good quarter does not always mean a higher price.

Let us fix the method up front. For every stock we compared estimated versus reported earnings per share for the last four reported quarters, and measured the reaction as the change from the announcement-day close to the next trading day's close. The sample is four observations per stock, a thin statistical ground, so every average below should be read as a base rate , not a prophecy. The aggregate picture is striking: earnings beat expectations in 84% of the 160 quarters, yet the next-day direction split exactly 50-50 up, with an average reaction of +0.06% — practically zero. Above-consensus profit has become the norm in this group; what moves prices is not the headline number but guidance language and the interest-provision balance.

Tuesday and Wednesday: the big banks take the stage

Tuesday October 13 is the heavyweight day: $UNH ($4.15 expected), $JPM ($5.94), $JNJ ($2.50), $GS ($13.29), $WFC ($1.85), $C ($2.62), $DPZ ($4.39), $ACI ($0.40) and $FBK ($1.21) report before the open, $AZZ ($1.84) after the close. Over the past four quarters this group beat 72% of the time, with an average next-day reaction of +0.41% and 52% up days — the most balanced of the four days. The group's star is Citigroup: +1.82% average reaction, up 3 out of 4, including a +4.49% day after a harsh -23.43% January earnings miss. According to the Zacks JNJ calendar the healthcare giant reports October 13, with consensus at $2.53 pointing to roughly 10% year-on-year decline; last quarter it printed $2.90 versus $2.84 expected (+2.11%), so the bar is low but the record steady. The second-quarter scoreboard compiled by Jorgai raises that bar considerably: combined profit at the five largest banks up 39% year-on-year, the best quarter in Goldman history ($20.98 EPS) and 41% growth at JPMorgan; consensus figures in the same roundup sit near $5.82-5.84 on $50.6 billion revenue for JPM, $16-16.40 for Goldman and $1.17-1.18 for Bank of America.

Wednesday October 14 brings 9 reports: $ASML ($10.66), $BAC ($1.11), $MS ($2.94), $BLK ($14.29), $PGR ($4.35), $STT ($3.68) and $FAST ($0.34) before the open; $HOMB ($0.64) and $EQBK ($1.30) after the close. Here is the oddity: the day's beat rate is 92%, the week's highest, yet the average reaction is -0.40% with only 44% up days — the weakest. The Wednesday group beats and then fails to celebrate. The chief culprit is Morgan Stanley: four beats in four quarters, yet a -2.36% average reaction and zero up days. CNBC's live earnings broadcast in July may explain the pattern: investment-banking fees and trading revenues were already sky-high in the second quarter (at Goldman, fixed income $3.71 billion and equities $5.11 billion), so the bar was high too. The scorecard from Indmoney shows where eyes should look instead: JPMorgan's $103 billion full-year net interest income target, Bank of America's growth outlook at the upper end of the 6-8% range, and return-on-equity targets above 20%; a downward revision in any of these kills a headline beat instantly.

Thursday October 15 is the week's busiest day with 16 reports: $TSM ($4.48), $SCHW ($1.66), $MRSH ($1.97), $PLD ($0.78), $BNY ($2.26), $PNC ($4.89), $USB ($1.32), $ERIC ($0.14), $CMC ($1.96) and $FHN ($0.52) before the open; $IBKR ($0.67), $AA ($1.54), $JBHT ($1.81), $INDB ($1.85), $SFNC ($0.53) and $CNS ($0.88) after the close. Over the last four quarters the beat rate is 83%, the average reaction +0.61% and the up rate 48%. The average is carried almost single-handedly by J.B. Hunt: +8.86% average reaction, up 3 of 4, including a +22.14% day last October — the strongest follow-through profile on the list. Two nearby surprises: Simmons First (+3.58%) and Cohen and Steers (+2.30%), both mostly missing estimates yet rising the next day, which means the bad news was already priced in. At the other extreme, property giant Prologis fell -3.41% on a gigantic +113.52% January surprise, proof that fund flows and guidance outweigh headlines for REITs. Calendar data from Investing sharpens expectations: $11.97 on $13.13 billion revenue for ASML, $4.39 on $45.28 billion for TSM, $1.67 on $7.22 billion for Schwab, $0.69 on $1.89 billion for Interactive Brokers. The LeverageShares calendar confirms the day split: UNH on October 13, ASML on October 14, TSM on October 15.

Friday's close and two opposite profiles

Friday October 16 closes the week with 5 reports: $TFC ($1.05), $TRV ($7.37), $CFG ($1.39), $RF ($0.66) and $MTB ($4.92). The past-four-quarter beat rate is 95%, the list's highest, but the average reaction is -0.11% with a 60% up rate — mostly up, but quietly. Insurer Travelers is the typical defensive case: a massive +86.12% July surprise followed by -0.13% the next day, four beats out of four, yet reactions never above +2.1%. Citizens Financial is the opposite warning: 4 beats out of 4, yet a -2.19% average including one hard -6.4% day. One technical detail matters for Friday reporters: volume runs thin and the first pricing is often incomplete, with the real move frequently spilling into the Monday October 19 session. So judge Friday names late, and include the Monday open in the picture.

Now the most instructive slice of the list: names that beat and still fell. Morgan Stanley sits at the bottom with four beats and a -2.36% average, zero up days. First Bancorp shares the fate: three beats, a -2.81% average, again zero up days. Equity Bancshares pairs four beats with -1.02% and 1 up day in 4; PNC four beats with -0.92%; Prologis four beats with -0.71%; First Horizon four beats with -1.16%. The mechanics of this inverse profile are simple: the good quarter was priced weeks in advance, announcement day becomes profit-taking day, and cautious guidance supplies the excuse. Vivid cases confirm it: Goldman posted a +44.27% surprise in July and rose just +1.06% the next day; Travelers printed +86.12% and fell -0.13%; Ericsson's +191.76% surprise in October 2025 earned -2.03%. In this group, building a long position ahead of earnings is statistically a bad bet.

The flip side holds the strong followers. J.B. Hunt leads by a mile at +8.86%; Simmons First (+3.58%), Cohen and Steers (+2.30%), AZZ (+2.11%) and Citigroup (+1.82%) follow. UnitedHealth (+0.85%, up 3 of 4), Charles Schwab (+0.87%, up 3 of 4) and US Bancorp (+0.83%, four beats in four) offer calmer but steady profiles. The Citigroup case is especially valuable: despite a -23.43% January earnings miss the stock rose +4.49%, because the feared provisioning item was finally behind it. Alcoa needs a careful read: last October's +12.59% day whets the appetite, but the four-quarter average is -0.45% with two drops beyond -6%; a single day is not a profile. The rule is simple: where beat meets constructive guidance in the strong-follower group, momentum persists, so weak opens in these names read as opportunity, not panic.

Sector read: rates, provisions and chips

Banks arrive with special context: the first reports since the September Fed rate hike, and as Jorgai notes, bank shares are down about 4% since the hike while the S&P 500 is up 3%. The sector lags and expectations run high. Three items will decide: first, net interest income guidance ($103 billion at JPMorgan, the upper end of 6-8% at Bank of America, around $50 billion annualized at Wells Fargo); second, loan-loss provisions and especially card loss rates (JPMorgan guides ~3.4%); third, investment-banking fees (Bank of America pre-announced a $1.6-1.8 billion range versus $2 billion last year). Healthcare is calmer: UnitedHealth keeps its defensive character with 4 beats in 4 and +0.85%, while Johnson and Johnson reactions sit inside a ±1% band. In chips, ASML and TSM beat four times each yet average reactions sit below zero; TSM fell -2.77% on a +10.89% July surprise. Add the density the Nasdaq calendar shows — 40 reports squeezed into one week — and intraday rotation is bound to accelerate.

Risks and limits

The risks and limits deserve plain writing. First, the sample is small: four observations per stock, so a single extreme day drags the average (JBHT's +22.1% lifts Thursday, PLD's -3.41% on its +113.52% surprise dents its own mean). Second, this screen has no revenue surprise; some reactions may really be about the top line. Third, guidance and call tone are unmeasured, yet most cases above suggest prices react to guidance. Fourth, for after-close reporters (AZZ, HOMB, EQBK, IBKR, AA, JBHT, INDB, SFNC, CNS) the first reaction forms in futures while the real price is found in the next session's opening hours; our close-to-close measure smooths the intraday wave. Fifth, Friday liquidity is thin and the Monday spillover must be counted. In short: the plan below is a base-rate compass, not a position promise.

The day-by-day plan

Watch the JPMorgan-Goldman-Citigroup triangle at Tuesday's open; the trio's tone sets the day's banking mood, with UnitedHealth and JNJ as defensive counterweight. On Wednesday compare Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML's morning side by side; whether the beat-yet-fall streak breaks at MS is the first thing to check. Thursday is the week's densest program: TSM and Schwab in the morning, J.B. Hunt and the regionals in the evening; with 16 reports crammed into one day intraday swings run high, so no hasty decisions. On Friday, as TFC, TRV, CFG, RF and MTB close the books, carry nothing into the weekend — especially remembering CFG's historic -6.4% day. On Monday October 19, revisit the Friday group. For holders: lighten pre-announcement risk in the inverse group (MS, FBK, CFG, PLD, PNC) and do not panic on weak opens in strong followers (JBHT, C, SCHW, USB, TRV). For newcomers: never buy any day's open; see the result and the first half hour, then decide.

Stock Detail: Last 4 Quarters, Week Forecast and Next-Day Reaction

The three tables below cover all 40 stocks: next-week EPS estimate, beats in the last four quarters, average surprise, average next-day reaction, up-day rate, and the latest quarter surprise-reaction pair. The four charts rank each day's stocks by average next-day reaction.