Fed Meeting and Market Expectations
The economic projections and interest rate decision to be announced by the Fed will be the primary driver of market direction. With a 92% probability of a rate hike, this is expected to pressure stocks through borrowing costs.
The interest rate differential between Japan and the US (carry trade) will remain stable if both banks hike by 25 basis points. This balance may prevent a sudden withdrawal of global liquidity, though risks remain.
Critical Thresholds and Risks in Indices
The S&P 500 is currently trading around 7,585, roughly 3% off its all-time highs. If the 7,550 support level is breached, the next target is seen at 7,255.
The situation is more critical for the Nasdaq. A drop below 25,950 could trigger a risk of falling toward the 25,000 level, creating a 1,000-point gap.
Artificial Intelligence: Regulation and Strategy Wars
Two opposing camps have emerged in the AI world regarding safety and growth speed. Donald Trump criticizes those opposing data center construction, arguing it would benefit China.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang agrees with Trump on increasing data center capacity. Industry leaders like Sam Altman and Elon Musk are debating different strategies concerning growth speed and ethical regulations.
Technical Outlook for Tech Giants
Amazon (AMZN) is consolidating around $248, with $236 emerging as the strongest support point. A drop below this could deepen the downtrend.
Nvidia (NVDA) is struggling at the $213-214 resistance zone. Levels below $200 are considered an attractive 'buy zone' for long-term investors.
AI commentary
"In my opinion, the market is currently in a cycle of total uncertainty. Specifically, the maintenance of the Japan carry trade balance and the Fed's potential rate hike are pushing investors into a defensive stance. Pullbacks in giants like Nvidia and Amazon could be healthy consolidations, but if the 20 volatility threshold is breached, real panic may set in."
Sources
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economy · markets · decision · critical · support · levels · nodesdaily