Stock gauge methodology

This gauge combines permitted news passages with published stock reports. Mistral proposes company relevance and directional cues; fixed rules calculate the score. The scale is −100 to +100, not a probability of correctness.

With both pillars, score = 0.5 × price + 0.5 × news. If one is missing, only the available pillar is used; without either, the result is ‘Insufficient evidence’. Price is the mean of available momentum and technical assessments; a latest price older than four days is excluded.

Momentum needs at least six reports: the last-five-interval return / 0.06 and first-to-last return / 0.10 receive weights 0.6 and 0.4, each clipped to −1…+1. Volume ratio >1.2 applies ×1.1; <0.8 applies ×0.9. Technical assessment requires at least two of trend, SMA slope, RSI and support/resistance.

News score = 100 × tanh(total contribution / 1.5). Contribution multiplies direction, strength/3, certainty, relevance, model confidence class and time decay. Happened/announced/expected/rumor: 1/0.8/0.5/0.25. Direct/indirect/sector: 1/0.5/0.3. Low-confidence, rejected and stale cues are excluded. The window is 14 days; known event time takes precedence over publication time.

sinyal-2.0 discounts repetition only for cues assigned to the same event by an editor; independent same-direction events retain full weight. Repeats within 72 hours receive 1, 1/2, 1/4… weights. Normal half-life is 72 hours, or 120 for regulatory, corporate and guidance cues. Zone boundaries are ±20 and strong-zone boundaries ±60, with 5-point hysteresis under the same rules version.

Source permissions, current revisions and editorial decisions are checked on every read. Missing or budget-limited analyses do not imply complete coverage. Model assessments do not replace human review. A gauge without current data is hidden.

Conflict disclosure and track record

The gauge is not yet released for general use.

The track record counts each ticker/report date once; f1/f5/f20 are observed returns in subsequent reports. Missing observations are not zeros. Past outcomes do not guarantee future returns.

Notice

The investment information, commentary and opinions here do not constitute investment advisory services. Such services are provided under an advisory agreement between the client and an authorized intermediary, portfolio manager or non-deposit-taking bank. Opinions may not suit your financial circumstances or risk and return preferences. Decisions based solely on this information may not produce the results you expect.